NATO and the Russians

A good has come out of the Ossetian Crisis.

Several countries have made the first steps towards a stronger NATO and (perhaps) a more united Europe. The creation of identity often requires an 'other' and 'outsider', and Russia has conveniently fashioned itself as such. Kudos to Vladimir!

According to Defence News research, the Swedish military budget may see an increase from $5.9bil to $6.5bil next year and the Norwegian budget from $5.8bil to $6.3bil. A substantial increase in budget and spending in the Nordic states is spurred no doubt due to the 'unanticipated' events of Georgia in August. Premier Fredrik Reinfeldt's 4-party center-right coalition govt in Sweden had to suspend further cuts to core military operations, after facing increasing criticism over his government's handling of defense reorganisation programs since 2006.

Russia's flexing of its muscle has also rekindled the debate as to whether Finland and Sweden - neutral and non-NATO countries- should join the alliance. According to Finland's foreign minister Alexander Stubb, "We should consider the possibility of NATO membership. [though] We cannot draw the conclusion from the crisis in Georgia that now the door to NATO membership is open." Even so, there is the widespread realisation that current trends of military modernisation and spending are untenable. Opposition leaders in Sweden have laid barrage on hard-hitting cuts to defence spending leaving Sweden 'fundamentally defenseless'. Urban Ahlin, the Social Democrats foreign affairs spokesman, commented that 'Russia crossed a line, which I thought would be impossible after the post-Soviet drawing of the European map... We must now reassess the need for a stronger defense and security strategy.'

Even Lithuania's military is pushing for increased spending.

While it is disheartening that European integration can only take place with the increased prospect of war, it could also be hoped that these nations would find a policy of positive integration and engagement with each other and not merely create marriages of conveniences, in order to weather the current political storm. It is good that these events are happening without direct US involvement, though we cannot discount that the probability of US blessings, and that a stronger stand (not hardline as yet) is needed to be taken by Europe in order to maintain the fragile balance of power in the region. Russia may not be expansionist, but soft power needs to be countered actively before it is too late.

MR D.